Bears vs. Colts Super Bowl Preview - Chicagoland Sportbikes
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post #1 of 7 (permalink) Old 01-24-2007, 10:05 PM Thread Starter
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Bears vs. Colts Super Bowl Preview

It's been tough to think of anything other than the big game coming up on February 4th, 2007. The beloved will head to Miami to face the AFC champion Colts. The Colts are early 7 point favorites but a lot of money has been coming in on the Bears and some places have already moved to 6.5 points. The line usually moves with smart money so let's break this game down and predict a winner.

Colts Offense vs. Bears Defense
Indy boasted the #3 offense in the league averaging 379.4 yards per game. They were 18th in rushing offense at 110.1 yards per game and 2nd in passing offense with 269.3 yards per game. The Colts prefer to attack with the pass and like to use multiple receivers and intermediate routes to open up the long ball. Running the ball is the second option although they did average 27.4 attempts per game vs. 34.8 passing attempts per game. Indy does a good job taking care of the football giving up only 19 turnovers all season consisting of 9 INTs and 10 fumbles.

The Colts can go into a hurry-up or no-huddle mode at any point in a game with Peyton Manning able to call plays at the line of scrimmage. This can wear a defense out quickly and not allow an opposing team to subsitute defenders. The key to countering this attack is get consistent pressure and to force a stop early.

The Bears bring the #5 rated defense into the Super Bowl allowing 294.1 yards and 15.9 points per game. The Bears are #11 against the pass and #6 against the rush. The Bears led the league with 44 takeaways including 24 INTs and 20 Fumble Recoveries. The Bears defense has gassed at times during the season and shown a weakness at the safety position in pass coverage. The Bears defense has also shown to ability to win a game with big plays in pressure situations.

The advantage here is with the Colts as Peyton Manning has the ability to find the soft spots in the Bears pass defense and Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison have the ability to break big plays after the catch. The Colts will find it tough to run against a stout front seven for the Bears. The key for the Bears is to get off the field on third down by generating a quick pass rush and forcing Manning to get rid of the ball before he wants to. Rookie phenom Mark Anderson has the speed and the moves to beat one on one blocking and the Colts often don't keep extra blockers in the back field so look for this matchup to be a key to the game. The Bears should benefit from at least one turnover but will likely get more if the Colts try to work the middle of the field often. Look for the Colts offense to generate about 350 total yards and 24 points.

Bears Offense vs. Colts Defense
The Bears offense ranked #15 during the regular season averaging 324.9 yards per game and 26.7 points per game. The Bears average 31.4 carries and 119.9 yards per game on the ground. In near-perfect balance they average 32.1 attempts and 205.1 yards per game through the air. Chicago has been wildy inconsistent on offense, mostly due to the erratic play of QB Rex Grossman. However in two playoff games the Bears have moved the ball consistently with a heavy running attack and a balanced passing attack.

The Bears like to run the football and take chances down field when a defense stacks up in the box. Ron Turner and Rex Grossman both like to challenge defenses deep and are not afraid of taking chances on the opponents half of the field. The Bears can take the wind out of a defense late in games by running the ball behind a powerfull run-blocking offensive line. The Bears offense struggles when playing from behind and is prone to turning the ball over when forced into a lot of passing situations.

The Colts defense ranked #22 allowing 332.2 yards and 22.5 points per game. They were ranked #2 against the pass, however teams only threw an average of 25.9 times per game against them. Only Oakland faced fewer pass attempts. The reason for this is the Colts #32 ranked rush defense which allowed a modern-day record 173 yards per game and faced a league-high 32.4 attempts per game. The Colts rush defense has looked better in the playoffs, however teams inexplicable stopped running the ball averaging only 20.3 attempts per game which may account for the improvement. Indy does not force a lot of turnovers racking up only 26 the whole season.

The matchup on paper looks like a clear advantage to the Bears with the effective rushing of Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. The Bears should be able to move the ball on the ground and keep the Indy offense off of the field. If the Colts can't find a way to force the Bears into some 3rd and long situations it could be a very long day for them. Look for the Bears to put up around 275 yards and 23 points.

Outside of clutch kicker Adam Vinateri the Colts special teams are horrible. They are in the bottom five of the league in all kick coverage categories and have given up 3 return TDs this season. Their return game is middle of the pack and they have 1 punt return for a TD.

Conversely the Bears kicking game has been outstanding all season. They led the league with 6 kick returns for a TD by the always exciting Devin Hester. Teams have repeated tried to kick away from Hester and the Bears have benefited with great starting field position for much of the playoffs.

Both kickers have had outstanding years and hit clutch kicks to win games. Veteran Adam Vinateri for the Colts has played in three superbowls and won two of them with late field goals. Robbie Gould for the Bears has only been in the league for two years but has shown ice-water blood in the playoffs this year hitting 5 of 5 attempts including a 49 yarder in poor conditions.

The advantage here is heavily in the Bears favor. If the Colts kick to Devin Hester he will return one for a touch down. Even if they don't kick to him he may return one for a touch down. The Bears special teams should be a big factor in this game either through scoring or setting up the offense with great field position.

The Bears win this game by the score of 30-23 on the strength of their running game and special teams play. The Bears gain 200 yards on the ground on 40 attempts and win the time of posession battle. Indy moves the ball well but is unable to finish drives in Bear territory. Peyton Manning throws an INT to Charles Tillman to end the game.
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post #2 of 7 (permalink) Old 01-24-2007, 10:48 PM
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I very much agree with that. I think the colts will move the ball on anyone at anytime. I think most of the colts drives will stall on the Bears side of the field. Devin Hester is due for a great return even if he doesn't get a TD I think he will have some great returns to set up the offense to succeed. I have a really good feeling about this game and it seems to me that it is the Bears game to lose. It is not the way the colts play it is how the Bears respond, and I think the Bears will respond without prejudice.

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post #3 of 7 (permalink) Old 01-25-2007, 07:58 AM
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The only real thing I am worried about is the Colts hurry-up offense. Other than that I have to say the bears will win the big game, and I'll be calling in sick on Monday.

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post #4 of 7 (permalink) Old 01-25-2007, 09:14 AM
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A friend of mine told me an interesting stat. Chicago teams going to the Championship are 8/9 in the last 40+ years. Bulls 6/6, Bears 1/1, Sox 1/1, Hawks 0/1.
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post #5 of 7 (permalink) Old 01-25-2007, 09:34 AM
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Taking off the Monday after no matter what.. Manning's thumb could be an issue, he hid it yesterday from reporters. They said the x-ray was negative but he may be hiding some soft tissue damage on his throwing hand.
Two weeks off will help him here.

Colts run D was reaaalllly bad during the regular season, I can't believe they have improved this much in the PO's. So much so I thought they would get bounced in the first round. They are undersized and do not tackle well.

7 points is high, the Colts barely beat the Titans once and lost to them the other game. They also lost to Houston and Jacksonville (gave up 300+ rushing yards). They definitely have it in them to suck.

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post #6 of 7 (permalink) Old 06-29-2008, 12:17 AM
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post #7 of 7 (permalink) Old 06-29-2008, 12:50 AM
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bears suck. They need to get a QB very badly. Grossman fukn sucks the big one.

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