Do You Live In A 'tornado Town?' - Chicagoland Sportbikes
Chicagoland Sportbikes
 
Open Forum This forum is for all off-topic discussion.

 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
post #1 of 16 (permalink) Old 05-12-2004, 12:10 PM Thread Starter
Registered User
 
Ducati Mama's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Plainfield, IL
Posts: 442
Location: Plainfield, IL
Sportbike: Trek
Years Riding: not often enough
How you found us: umm, my husband owns the site
           
Do You Live In A 'tornado Town?'

Tornadoes cross northern Illinois every year, but is there one city or town that sees more than the rest? That's what we wanted to know, and thanks to some new software and a bit of number-crunching, we're able to check it out.

About Our Survey

There are many ways to survey probabilities of events occurring in nature. Our calculations were created by taking the latitude-longitude geographic coordinates of 168 northern Illinois cities and towns, two airports, and three Chicago neighborhoods; and plugging them into a software program called SATT (Site Assessment of Tornado Threat), created by a company in Alabama named Vortek.

The SATT software uses a public database of every tornado recorded in the United States from 1950-2002, and then calculates probabilities of tornadoes crossing within a preset number of miles of a certain point. In our study, we chose a 10-mile radius around each point, since we felt that a tornado within 10 miles of a point might cause a person to be affected by that tornado in some way (even by simply taking cover). The probabilities we came up with are tiny, as tornadoes are very rare events, and they're typically very small. But still, seeing the differences between places on the list has us wondering if the stats are telling the truth about possible mini-Tornado Alleys, even within northern Illinois.

More Considerations

One of the chief concerns about this historical data is that some of the cities represented here haven't been populated for very long, and some are still very rural. This leads to a near-certain conclusion that some tornadoes in these areas might not have been seen or properly recorded. We just don't know.

The Bottom Line

For now, all we have to work with is 50-plus years of data. What we don't know is how representative the past half-century is of all the years that came before. It's possible that, in the next 50 years, the differences between communities will balance out, or even swing the other way. Who knows? But no matter how we choose to look at the numbers and study the science, everyone agrees on these two things: 1) Just like the stock market, past performance does not guarantee future results, and 2) tornadoes can happen anytime anywhere in northern Illinois. You need to be prepared.

HERE'S OUR LIST!

With the above caveats in mind, here's our ranking of tornado-prone cities in northern Illinois. We surveyed 173 locations in Chicagoland and its surrounding counties. If we didn't include your city, look to those cities closest to you.

The score next to each number represents the probability. It's expressed in a term called Annual Coverage Fraction, which means the area of land likely to be disturbed by a tornado each year, within a 10-mile radius. For instance, the Orland Park ACF score of 0.00075898 equates to a 0.076% chance of any point within 10 miles of Orland Park being disturbed by a tornado in a single year. Using the ACF and some basic math, that's an average of 140 acres disturbed by tornadoes each year with 10 miles of Orland Park.

As you can see, the numbers are very small, since tornadoes are very rare over any one point. But the differences between the top and bottom of our list are interesting, even if we don't have thousands of years of data to back them up.

The number on the end is the percentage chance of a tornado annually.

Rank City or Town Annual Coverage Fraction Relative Percent
1 Bourbonnais 0.00088044 100.0
2 Bradley 0.00086184 97.9
3 Romeoville 0.00084804 96.3
4 Kankakee 0.00080080 91.0
5 Lockport 0.00079374 90.2
6 Homer Glen 0.00079026 89.8
7 Orland Park 0.00075898 86.2
8 Steger 0.00073454 83.4
9 Palos Hills 0.00073134 83.1
10 Lemont 0.00072813 82.7
11 Palos Heights 0.00071779 81.5
12 Hickory Hills 0.00071553 81.3
13 Crest Hill 0.00071251 80.9
14 Shorewood 0.00070704 80.3
15 Harvard 0.00070130 79.7
16 Burr Ridge 0.00070078 79.6
17 Plainfield 0.00068605 77.9
18 Bolingbrook 0.00068544 77.9
19 Justice 0.00068480 77.8
20 Bridgeview 0.00068103 77.4
21 Darien 0.00067268 76.4
22 Joliet 0.00067039 76.1
23 Hinsdale 0.00066171 75.2
24 Woodstock 0.00065422 74.3
25 Worth 0.00064905 73.7
26 Woodridge 0.00064433 73.2
27 Westmont 0.00064145 72.9
28 Chicago Ridge 0.00063548 72.2
29 Western Springs 0.00062985 71.5
30 Downers Grove 0.00061465 69.8
31 Belvidere 0.00058214 66.1
32 Channahon 0.00056522 64.2
33 Lisle 0.00055862 63.4
34 Summit 0.00054178 61.5
35 Burbank 0.00053598 60.9
36 Oak Lawn 0.00050092 56.9
37 La Grange 0.00047974 54.5
38 Brookfield 0.00044823 50.9
39 Oswego 0.00043499 49.4
40 Lyons 0.00041314 46.9
41 Prospect Heights 0.00040375 45.9
42 Mount Prospect 0.00040306 45.8
43 New Lenox 0.00039319 44.7
44 MacHenry 0.00039039 44.3
45 Des Plaines 0.00038721 44.0
46 Chgo-Midway 0.00037093 42.1
47 Park Ridge 0.00035731 40.6
48 Niles 0.00034876 39.6
49 Morton Grove 0.00034360 39.0
50 Northbrook 0.00034049 38.7
51 Norridge 0.00033839 38.4
52 Westchester 0.00033828 38.4
53 Glenview 0.00033729 38.3
54 Chgo-O'Hare 0.00033660 38.2
55 Bensenville 0.00033554 38.1
56 Schiller Park 0.00033532 38.1
57 Elk Grove Village 0.00033272 37.8
58 Wood Dale 0.00032886 37.4
59 La Salle 0.00032840 37.3
60 Wheeling 0.00032491 36.9
61 Alsip 0.00032099 36.5
62 Arlington Heights 0.00031592 35.9
63 Peru 0.00031573 35.9
64 Lincolnwood 0.00030339 34.5
65 Franklin Park 0.00030114 34.2
66 Crestwood 0.00029891 34.0
67 Skokie 0.00029823 33.9
68 Aurora 0.00029577 33.6
69 River Grove 0.00028686 32.6
70 Evergreen Park 0.00028641 32.5
71 Northlake 0.00028206 32.0
72 Deerfield 0.00027873 31.7
73 Addison 0.00027426 31.2
74 Mundelein 0.00026880 30.5
75 Oak Forest 0.00026265 29.8
76 Crystal Lake 0.00026170 29.7
77 Libertyville 0.00025848 29.4
78 Elmhurst 0.00025130 28.5
79 Midlothian 0.00024754 28.1
80 Rolling Meadows 0.00024568 27.9
81 Wilmette 0.00023650 26.9
82 Berwyn 0.00023208 26.4
83 Wauconda 0.00022846 25.9
84 Grayslake 0.00022645 25.7
85 Blue Island 0.00022574 25.6
86 Bloomingdale 0.00022515 25.6
87 Moline 0.00022452 25.5
88 Highland Park 0.00022451 25.5
89 Round Lake Beach 0.00022358 25.4
90 Roselle 0.00022305 25.3
91 Evanston 0.00022219 25.2
92 Cicero 0.00022132 25.1
93 Glendale Heights 0.00021932 24.9
94 Elmwood Park 0.00021686 24.6
95 Quincy 0.00021655 24.6
96 Fox Lake 0.00021646 24.6
97 North Aurora 0.00021277 24.2
98 Rock Island 0.00021196 24.1
99 Cary 0.00021143 24.0
100 Villa Park 0.00021003 23.9
101 Schaumburg 0.00020726 23.5
102 Algonquin 0.00020539 23.3
103 Lake in the Hills 0.00020345 23.1
104 Bellwood 0.00020183 22.9
105 Melrose Park 0.00020108 22.8
106 Carol Stream 0.00020005 22.7
107 Winnetka 0.00019752 22.4
108 North Chicago 0.00019438 22.1
109 Loves Park 0.00019337 22.0
110 Warrenville 0.00018774 21.3
111 Maywood 0.00018726 21.3
112 Winfield 0.00018725 21.3
113 Palatine 0.00018687 21.2
114 Chgo-Edgewater 0.00018652 21.2
115 Morris 0.00018574 21.1
116 Buffalo Grove 0.00018565 21.1
117 Forest Park 0.00018526 21.0
118 Hanover Park 0.00018337 20.8
119 Gurnee 0.00018177 20.6
120 West Chicago 0.00017818 20.2
121 Wheaton 0.00017666 20.1
122 Waukegan 0.00017504 19.9
123 River Forest 0.00017458 19.8
124 Naperville 0.00017318 19.7
125 Lindenhurst 0.00017235 19.6
126 Glen Ellyn 0.00017142 19.5
127 Vernon Hills 0.00016349 18.6
128 Tinley Park 0.00016110 18.3
129 Lombard 0.00015992 18.2
130 Lake Zurich 0.00015629 17.8
131 Beach Park 0.00015440 17.5
132 Antioch 0.00015078 17.1
133 Streamwood 0.00015020 17.1
134 Batavia 0.00014539 16.5
135 Bartlett 0.00014174 16.1
136 Saint Charles 0.00014050 16.0
137 Markham 0.00013876 15.8
138 Machesney Park 0.00013826 15.7
139 Ottawa 0.00013717 15.6
140 Carpentersville 0.00013625 15.5
141 Geneva 0.00013579 15.4
142 Lake Forest 0.00013452 15.3
143 Hoffman Estates 0.00013352 15.2
144 Oak Park 0.00013317 15.1
145 Harvey 0.00013227 15.0
146 Willowbrook 0.00012106 13.7
147 Country Club Hills 0.00011639 13.2
148 Barrington 0.00011386 12.9
149 Chgo-Englewood 0.00011283 12.8
150 Huntley 0.00011134 12.6
151 Mokena 0.00011068 12.6
152 Riverdale 0.00010496 11.9
153 Streator 0.00010134 11.5
154 Hazel Crest 0.00009608 10.9
155 South Holland 0.00009088 10.3
156 Dolton 0.00009071 10.3
157 Rockford 0.00008794 10.0
158 South Elgin 0.00008621 9.8
159 Frankfort 0.00008592 9.8
160 Homewood 0.00008555 9.7
161 Calumet City 0.00008350 9.5
162 Richton Park 0.00007945 9.0
163 Park Forest 0.00007755 8.8
164 Sauk Village 0.00005933 6.7
165 Matteson 0.00005910 6.7
166 Elgin 0.00005318 6.0
167 Flossmoor 0.00004512 5.1
168 Chicago Heights 0.00003981 4.5
169 Chgo-Loop 0.00002838 3.2
170 Lansing 0.00000868 1.0
171 Sycamore 0.00000504 0.6
172 DeKalb 0.00000495 0.6
173 Rochelle 0.00000131 0.1
Ducati Mama is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #2 of 16 (permalink) Old 05-12-2004, 12:25 PM
Registered User
 
BusaDave's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Naperville
Posts: 5,001
Location: Naperville
Sportbike: 2002 Turbo Hayabusa
Years Riding: Lost Track
How you found us: Tony
           
I believe that there are factors such as the Great Lakes, land elevations, forested areas, rivers, etc. that can affect the likelihood of tornados in the surrounding areas. The trends in the jetstream I'm sure are also an influence.

We have gotten MUCH better at tracking weather patterns. I'm sure within another generation we may have enough understanding of the variables to use the information in locating towns or to improve weather forecasting.

While forecasting has gotten better, it is still optimistic when they give a 7-day outlook. In Chicago, anything beyond 3 days is wishful thinking.

What has improved dramatically is the ability to give advanced warning of dangerous weather approaching and the path it is taking.

Dave
BusaDave is offline  
post #3 of 16 (permalink) Old 05-12-2004, 12:27 PM
SICK OF IT ALL
 
Ocean's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Dallas, TX
Posts: 4,471
Location: Dallas, TX
Sportbike: missing my RC51
Years Riding: 9+
How you found us: drove by Strats one night & stopped in
           
geez--Plainfield is up on the list pretty high...

Wayne


Standing together
Side by side
Staying true to what’s inside
United as one, we fight

Ocean is offline  
post #4 of 16 (permalink) Old 05-12-2004, 12:31 PM
Special Agent Lance Boyle
 
Sticky's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: planet earth
Posts: 6,707
Location: planet earth
Sportbike: 2010 KX250F
Years Riding: 26
How you found us: Sportbike Network
           
Send a message via AIM to Sticky
Geez, I can't believe Skokie is more likely to be hit than Aurora(albeit slightly). I though proximity to Lake Michigan helped dissipate the pressure delta?

<--------Sticky Nicky
Sticky is offline  
post #5 of 16 (permalink) Old 05-12-2004, 12:38 PM
Grasshopper
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
And Federal Signal Warns you!
post #6 of 16 (permalink) Old 05-12-2004, 12:43 PM
Registered User
 
2weelpilot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Spring Grove, IL
Posts: 18,082
Location: Spring Grove, IL
Sportbike: yz250f
Years Riding: 25 years
How you found us: dont recall
           
I wonder why Plainfield is so high but Naperville is so low?

Interesting info though. My kid is doing a diddy at school on tornados so this may be useful to him

Thanks for posting

Mike

When the tailgate drops..the bullshit stops
Hunt ethically - Hunt with a trained Retriever !
2weelpilot is offline  
post #7 of 16 (permalink) Old 05-12-2004, 12:58 PM
Registered User
 
Meulen's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Romeoville
Posts: 19,186
Location: Romeoville
Sportbike: looking to get dirty!
Years Riding: long time
How you found us: SBN
           
Romeoville is up there too. I don't recall much on tornado damage there in the past, but I guess being in that radius with Plainfield there is some overlap. That being said we've had some pretty close calls recently.

I was fully aware of this when we moved out there. Infact, I had read a statistic that a homeowner in this area could count on rebuilding their home every 20 years. I've also read some about the patterns of the so called "tornado alley" and how in the last 5 years that has shifted from Plainfield to Aurora/Naperville.

Brian (F.K.A. Crazy)

Gamertag: CRAZY403


“You can’t escape the responsibility of tomorrow by evading it today.”

-Abraham Lincoln


“Blessed are the young, for they shall inherit the national debt.”

-Herbert Hoover
Meulen is offline  
post #8 of 16 (permalink) Old 05-12-2004, 01:32 PM
Grammaton Cleric
 
MrBusa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: BER!-Wyn, IL
Posts: 1,842
Location: BER!-Wyn, IL
Sportbike: 2005 Suzuki Hayabusa LE
Years Riding: Since 07-01-2001
How you found us: Google, I believe
      
Send a message via AIM to MrBusa Send a message via Yahoo to MrBusa
There is a sort of tornado Bermuda triangle in IL. Basically, if you live a little north or south of I-55, you are in a hot spot...

Plainfield
Joliet
Romeoville
Burrridge
Darien
Bridgeview
etc.
...you get the point

Also, as time goes on, the data will change. Earlier data relied upon eyewitness accounts and skews to more heavily populated areas. Due to detection advances such as NEXRAD, tornados can be detected without eye-witness accounts. Thus, higher statistical accuracy as the technology improves.

-- Matthew --

"I'm just a simple man trying to make his way in the Universe" - Jango Fett
MrBusa is offline  
post #9 of 16 (permalink) Old 05-12-2004, 01:35 PM
Administrator
 
HDTony's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Plainfield IL
Posts: 45,956
Location: Plainfield IL
Sportbike: A couple of pasta rockets
Years Riding: Since 1989
How you found us: In the beginning there was CLSB and Tony saw that it was good.
           
Send a message via AIM to HDTony
It does take some curious weather conditions for tornados to pop up out there. usually they are caused by the wind off the lake coming all the way out here, which is what caused the plainfield F5 back in the early 90's




HDTony.... Damn glad to meet you!

Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.

- Ronald Reagan

AirTek Heating & Air inc.
HDTony is offline  
post #10 of 16 (permalink) Old 05-12-2004, 01:49 PM
I'm always learning......
 
SloRoll's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Southwest Suburbs
Posts: 5,778
Location: Southwest Suburbs
Sportbike: 2k14 FLHXS, 1981 FXE, 1949 HD EL Panhead, Yami PW80
Years Riding: Long, long, long, long, long time.
How you found us: GPS
           
A few years ago I attended a few seminars on severe weather at Fermilab and Wheaton College. I'm also a pilot and have been for about 30 years. Also, I'm a licensed HAM radio operator. When some of my friends put all this together, I was aked if I wanted to become a registered severe weather spotter. I agreed and was issued a number by the state of Illinois. If I spotted or suspected severe wx I was supposed to call a tel number and give them my spotter number and the report. I've seen the plots of the tornadoes that have occurred in the northern Illinois area in the last 100 years. I can tell you that they can and do occur anywhere in N. IL.. They have occurred downtown. They have occurred a mile west of me in the forest preserves and a mile east of me in Oak Lawn. Don't waste you time worrying about where you live.

Synthetic Lifelike Organism Responsible for Observation and Logical Learning - SLOROLL

Remember there's a big difference between kneeling down and bending over. Zappa 1974

And I said....."Look here brother, who you jiving with that cosmik debris? Now is that a real poncho or is that a Sears poncho? Zappa 1974
SloRoll is offline  
post #11 of 16 (permalink) Old 05-12-2004, 02:38 PM
Grammaton Cleric
 
MrBusa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: BER!-Wyn, IL
Posts: 1,842
Location: BER!-Wyn, IL
Sportbike: 2005 Suzuki Hayabusa LE
Years Riding: Since 07-01-2001
How you found us: Google, I believe
      
Send a message via AIM to MrBusa Send a message via Yahoo to MrBusa
Quote:
Originally posted by SloRoll
A few years ago I attended a few seminars on severe weather at Fermilab and Wheaton College. I'm also a pilot and have been for about 30 years. Also, I'm a licensed HAM radio operator. When some of my friends put all this together, I was aked if I wanted to become a registered severe weather spotter. I agreed and was issued a number by the state of Illinois. If I spotted or suspected severe wx I was supposed to call a tel number and give them my spotter number and the report. I've seen the plots of the tornadoes that have occurred in the northern Illinois area in the last 100 years. I can tell you that they can and do occur anywhere in N. IL.. They have occurred downtown. They have occurred a mile west of me in the forest preserves and a mile east of me in Oak Lawn. Don't waste you time worrying about where you live.
That sounds like fun.

I have to confess that I was a weather geek, growing up as a kid. Loved to read about meteorology and took a few classes in college.

-- Matthew --

"I'm just a simple man trying to make his way in the Universe" - Jango Fett
MrBusa is offline  
post #12 of 16 (permalink) Old 05-12-2004, 03:14 PM
Make my day!!!!!
 
wingit's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Rockdale, il
Posts: 3,330
Location: Rockdale, il
Sportbike: Looking at a shiny Huffy!
Years Riding: 20+ yrs.
How you found us: member
           
I moving to bourbannais. Joliet is only 22 on the list. There was once a story ran that pointed a line called tornado alley that ran from north of the louis joliet mall to my doorstep.. Ironically I believe this line did cross through Plainfield, Crest Hill, then Joliet.

Living life! Because before you know it it is over!

Joe

FACEBOOK
wingit is offline  
post #13 of 16 (permalink) Old 05-12-2004, 03:18 PM
Make my day!!!!!
 
wingit's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Rockdale, il
Posts: 3,330
Location: Rockdale, il
Sportbike: Looking at a shiny Huffy!
Years Riding: 20+ yrs.
How you found us: member
           
During the tornado in 1990 (I think) the house I presently live in was badly damaged. Roof was gone and you can see through the house cause some of the walls were missing! The framing stayed up so basically new roof, siding and drywall for a like new look!

Living life! Because before you know it it is over!

Joe

FACEBOOK
wingit is offline  
post #14 of 16 (permalink) Old 05-12-2004, 05:00 PM
freaking newbies, man there slow, ha ha ha
 
CRAZe Inc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 6,842
Location: San Francisco
Sportbike: Big Wheel
Years Riding: Since 3
How you found us: This is required?
           
I don't remember Naperville getting too many tornadoes. I think there was one really tiny one out in south Naperville last year maybe. Kind of a let down for me, I love the weather and would like to see a tornado just as long as it's not headed towards my house
CRAZe Inc is offline  
post #15 of 16 (permalink) Old 05-12-2004, 10:18 PM
VTwin Squid
 
Jynxx's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Elgin
Posts: 420
Location: Elgin
Sportbike: 99' VTR1000 Cruiser: 02' VTX1800
Years Riding: 4
How you found us: Sportbikes.com
 
Quote:
Originally posted by gohsbc
geez--Plainfield is up on the list pretty high...


Maybe past weather activity helps choose the percentages for today. Remember when Plainfield was creamed by a tornado back in the early 90's? Quite a few people got killed....


Elgin seems to be a safe bet, so I think I'll stay here
Jynxx is offline  
post #16 of 16 (permalink) Old 05-13-2004, 05:15 AM
CLSB SoCal Chapter
 
LadyDemona's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Mira Mesa Starbucks in San Diego,CA
Posts: 2,682
Location: Mira Mesa Starbucks in San Diego,CA
Sportbike: 2004 Red Kawasaki ZZR 600
Years Riding: since 2004
How you found us: My hubby Shane aka "Nickyfan"
           
Let's see live in Crest Hill which is #13 and about a stones throw away from Romeoville, Plainfield, Lockport, Joliet and Shorewood.

So I'd say we're pretty much screwed!

I actually had a general idea based on the Plainfield tornado, being my only point of reference of course, that it may happen again in the area.

Then again Shane's family had lived here most of their lives and they're ok. I on the other hand have been in Northwest Suburbia and the City all my life !

<--------Paulette
__________________
Lord,
Grant me the Serenity to accept the fact that I can't pass them all,
The Courage to pass most...
And the Wisdom to hide the bodies of those who refuse to
GET THE HELL OUT OF MY WAY!!
"Number '69' All the Way!"
"GO NICKY HAYDEN!!!"

Paulette's Facebook
LadyDemona is offline  
Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Options

Register Now



In order to be able to post messages on the Chicagoland Sportbikes forums, you must first register.
Please enter your desired user name, your email address and other required details in the form below.

User Name:
Password
Please enter a password for your user account. Note that passwords are case-sensitive.

Password:


Confirm Password:
Email Address
Please enter a valid email address for yourself.

Email Address:
OR

Log-in










Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Show Printable Version
Email this Page Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Linear Mode



Posting Rules  
You may post new threads
You may post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

 
For the best viewing experience please update your browser to Google Chrome