ComEd goign up 22% over the winter? - Chicagoland Sportbikes
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post #1 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-18-2006, 04:46 PM Thread Starter
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ComEd goign up 22% over the winter?

anyone got more news links to this, saw it on the news only caught the tail end.

what problems do they have other then not getting on the bandwagon with the other living cost going up



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post #2 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-18-2006, 04:56 PM
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Record profits for the last few years. If we allow the oil companies to fucking kill us why not every other energy source.
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post #3 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-18-2006, 05:52 PM
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i heard, that they had some 10 year thing that limited how much they could charge, and now that contract is up. I'm not sure though

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post #4 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-18-2006, 05:58 PM
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The reason for the increase isn't because of the "Fixed Rate that we have enjoyed for the last ten years...." it is because of de-regulation.

Since there are other alternatives out there for electric (not always available in certain areas) they are going to stick it to the customers that don't have another choice. Great thinking!

Then again, what else should we expect from a CEO that came up through Com Ed starting as a mailroom clerk? The way Com Ed does things it is a wonder they can still do business.

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post #5 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-18-2006, 09:11 PM
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They've laid off a bunch of people over the last 5 years. What do you wanna know Ken? We've had the CEO in the office to talk to us. We've known this was coming for quite some time

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post #6 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-18-2006, 09:14 PM
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the 22% is over 3 years I think?
Its still concerning when you dont have another source to buy electric from

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post #7 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-18-2006, 09:28 PM
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Electric Utilities: Constructive outcome in Illinois power auction; Subject: Industry Overview

o Auction manager declares pricing and winning bidders Late last Friday, the auction manager overseeing the first Illinois power supply auction released the pricing and names of winning bidders for the fixed price portion of the auction. Pricing fell in the $63/MWh-$64/MWh range for ComEd's residential and small commercial customers, and $64/MWh-$66/Wh for Ameren's Illinois utilities. This translates to average rate increases of 22% for ComEd customers and 40%-55% for Ameren customers. Winning bidders in the auction included non-regulated subsidiaries of Ameren, American Electric Power, Centrica, Constellation Energy, DTE, Dynegy, Edison International, Exelon, FPL, Pepco Holdings, PPL, Sempra, and WPS, as well as financial players J. Aron, J. P. Morgan, and Morgan Stanley. The actual amount each bidder has won will not be disclosed at this stage. Auction pricing in line with our expectations The auction results solidly support our expectations. For Exelon, we were projecting a full requirements auction price in the $60/MWh-$65MWh range and a $45/MWh around-the-clock (ATC) price, which is *****ded in our 2007E of $4.75.

ATC is most relevant for EXC given its baseload nuclear assets and limitations on the amount that any single bidder could sell into the auctions. ATC prices were in the $48/MWh range going into the auction, which is generally supportive of our 2007 outlook, and should be sufficient to offset the disappointing outcome of ComEd's delivery rate case. For Ameren, our 2007E includes a $65/MWh auction price. AEE's non-regulated generation is configured to serve full requirements load, so the auction price is more relevant in this case. Edison International was a seller in the auction, and had also been actively hedging out its Midwest generation units in the preceding period leading up to the auction. Political overhang remains; phase-in plans being offered There is still some political risk that the legislature could seek to reopen the auction issue during its veto session in November. Exelon and Ameren have each proposed plans to phase in higher rates over time. Ameren is also expecting an ALJ decision on its Illinois T&D rate cases on October 4. In light of the political overhang, we would expect the companies to remain somewhat silent on the auction outcome for the time being. That said, Exelon has scheduled a conference call for Thursday, September 21 at 10:30 AM EST to discuss auction results, as well as the termination of EXC's merger with PSEG. Hourly price auction under investigation Last week, the Illinois Commerce Commission (ICC) announced it would investigate the hourly-price auction for large industrial customers. This will leave some lingering uncertainty, although we note that the hourly price auction is a relatively small component of the overall process.


Price Objective Basis & Risk

Edison InternationalOur price objective of $46 is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation incorporating the utility at 14.5x 2007E (in line with comparable regulated peers); Edison Capital at 10x 2007E plus $450M of surplus cash; and parent/other drag valued at 8.0x 2007E. For the MEHC merchant business our valuation is based on a blended enterprise value of $1,040/kW reflecting its mainly coal-fired generation assets. Implied EV/EBITDA for MEHC at our target is 7.6x (2007E), which is a discount to major traded IPP comparables. Risks to our price objective are significant natural gas price and commodity downside in the merchant business; failure to execute on the utility's rate base growth strategy and valuation downside in the broader utility group.Exelon Corp.Our price objective of $64 for EXC looks forward to 2007 earnings potential in the $4.75 range and applies a P/E multiple of 13.5x (modest discount to average forward utility multiple). We believe this range of earnings potential is relatively conservative given current forward commodity prices and assuming a transition to the proposed auction-based utility procurement in Illinois. Likewise, we believe a discount remains appropriate given the commodity earnings component and remaining political risks around the Illinois auction process. Risks to our target are nuclear operations; outcomes of new rate plans in Illinois and Pennsylvania; and longer-term earnings sensitivity to commodity pricing.

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post #8 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-18-2006, 09:29 PM
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Sunday, September 17, 2006 4:46:09 PM (GMT-07:00)
Provided by: Dow Jones
(From THE WALL STREET JOURNAL)

By Rebecca Smith

Many Illinois consumers face power-rate increases of 22% to 55% in January as a result of the first energy auction conducted by state officials.

The increase will come at a time when rising electricity prices are roiling the political-and-corporate landscape elsewhere. Last week, Exelon Corp. abandoned its $17.7 billion effort to acquire Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. after New Jersey state officials sought better terms for customers. In Maryland, the governor has sought to remove the entire public utilities commission due to a pending rate increase at Constellation Energy Group Inc.'s Baltimore Gas & Electric unit.

So far, rising electricity rates haven't become a big issue in Illinois Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich's re-election campaign. But such issues can suddenly ignite if voters feel officials haven't done enough to protect them.

Electricity prices are rising due to tightening supplies, higher costs for fuels like natural gas and a decade-long lull since the last period of price increases.

Like most bigger, industrial states, Illinois deregulated its electricity market in the late 1990s, though it froze rates until January 2007 for customers who didn't shop for an alternate supplier. State officials hoped that by 2007 a robust competitive retail market would exist, reducing the amount of electricity that utilities would need to obtain for their customers. But that hasn't happened, and the majority of residential and small-business consumers have no choice but to buy electricity from their local utility.

The auction was conducted in early September in response to the pending termination of power-supply contracts between generating companies and utilities. Prices were slightly higher than expected.

Residential and small-business customers of Exelon's Chicago-based Commonwealth Edison Co. unit will see their rates rise 22% to 26% to about 10.5 cents a kilowatt hour. Commonwealth Edison's unregulated power affiliate, Exelon Generation, has been furnishing it with power for about $38 a megawatt hour but that price will rise to $63 to $90 a megawatt hour as a result of the auction and will remain in force 17 months.

Customers at St. Louis-based Ameren Corp., which supplies a significant amount of power in Illinois, will fare somewhat worse. Rates next year at its three utilities there, Central Illinois Light Co., Central Illinois Public Service Co. and Illinois Power, will increase 40% to 55%. Ameren previously told investors it expected increases of 32% to 47%, based on a wholesale price of $60 a megawatt hour.

Actual winning bids ranged from $64.75 to $84.95 a megawatt hour. A customer of Central Illinois Light, for example, will see monthly costs jump about $33 to $92.

Scott Cisel, president of Ameren's Illinois utilities, said the company was "searching for an approach to soften the impact of these increases," but didn't elaborate.

Commonwealth Edison said it would sell highly efficient compact fluorescent light bulbs to its customers for $1 each, which the company says is a $2 discount from the typical retail price, and that customers could shave 4% off their bills if they bought at least six bulbs and used them regularly. The bulbs use one-quarter as much electricity as incandescent bulbs and last at least eight times longer, making them one of the most cost-effective tools for cutting energy costs.

Commonwealth Edison president Barry Mitchell said Friday that the auction "did exactly what it was supposed to do" by attracting bidders to a declining-cost auction similar to one used by New Jersey. The Illinois Commerce Commission, however, said it wasn't satisfied with the price fetched for one group of customers, who pay a price that fluctuates hourly in accordance with market conditions, and will investigate. Most of those are commercial customers but a few are residential users that are participating in an experimental program to see if customers react to changing prices. The ICC didn't disclose the prices obtained for that product.

Consumer advocates were critical of the auction because two of the major sellers were unregulated power affiliates of the utilities.

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post #9 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-18-2006, 09:57 PM
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post #10 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-18-2006, 10:56 PM
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Heh, a lot of them are all owned by the same VC firms and parent companies.

It's not called 'competition' it's called 'legal racketeering'.

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post #11 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-19-2006, 05:37 AM
 
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So instead of my bill being $10 it is going to be $12.20??
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post #12 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-19-2006, 07:00 AM
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well, now they are looking to pass a proposal again in the state that is going to lock them down again for an estimated 3 years...they are going to vote on it in november...i just heard it this am on the news...wgn channel 9 to be specific..

...plus my gf was with me saying "omg slow down, slow down" and I was thinking "Lose annoying squalk box in passenger seat, afford more mods and have less weight in the car and on the back of the bike"...so i dumped her and I'm single again as usual...HERE KITTY KITTY!!!
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post #13 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-19-2006, 08:52 AM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian
So instead of my bill being $10 it is going to be $12.20??

hey brian i have a window to clean, JUST 1 window i would like you to drive over here and provide me with your services.



what is your answer?



"if i dont reply soon ill reply later i gotta jet to work, OR can you already see where i am going with this"



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post #14 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-19-2006, 09:03 AM
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Im glad Batavia provides its own electricity. No wonder its called the "City of Energy"

Competetion is always good for the consumer....this will all sort out soon if there is a profit to be made.

Comed will not be your only choice for long.
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post #15 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-19-2006, 09:14 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kruz
Im glad Batavia provides its own electricity. No wonder its called the "City of Energy"

Competetion is always good for the consumer....this will all sort out soon if there is a profit to be made.

Comed will not be your only choice for long.

I don't know if I agree with this.

Deregulation isn't always good for the consumer. The only people that truely win in a deregulated market is the middle man, your enron's of the world. And the state now wants to lock down the price again for three years. This doesn't sound like a good idea either. Because if there is a lock on it, there is no promise that companies will be jumping into the market, just like the last 10 years.

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post #16 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-19-2006, 09:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kruz
Im glad Batavia provides its own electricity. No wonder its called the "City of Energy"

Competetion is always good for the consumer....this will all sort out soon if there is a profit to be made.

Comed will not be your only choice for long.
The problem is that the 'competition' has similar 'parents', so it's really just siblings out sparring for mom and dad to get the pie regardless of your 'choice'.

Now 5 seconds of brain cell activity says that to pull a hoodwink on the public, I would have some 'kids' bid out at a nice high price with a nice hefty profit rolled into it, and some 'rogue kids' put out bids that are so insane it's not even funny... Now, when the 'lower' bid gets 'chosen' everyone 'thinks' they got a deal and the 'competition' worked....

Welcome to mega-corporate america.

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post #17 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-19-2006, 09:33 AM
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The initial effects of deregulation can appear to be bad, howeve the long-term effects are always good for the consumer. You might have said the same thing about the telecom industry 10 years ago...it was too big, the parent companies owned everything, etc. Now look at what happened? Competetion is fierce, new more effficient technologies come online. Do you remember what is costs to place a long distance call 10 years ago? Now its essentially free when it used to cost several dollars a minute.

Power is a commodity...more communities, like mine, are offering alternatives to keep electricity rates low. The tricky part right now is how to deliver that power.
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post #18 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-19-2006, 09:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kruz
The initial effects of deregulation can appear to be bad, howeve the long-term effects are always good for the consumer. You might have said the same thing about the telecom industry 10 years ago...it was too big, the parent companies owned everything, etc. Now look at what happened? Competetion is fierce, new more effficient technologies come online. Do you remember what is costs to place a long distance call 10 years ago? Now its essentially free when it used to cost several dollars a minute.

Power is a commodity...more communities, like mine, are offering alternatives to keep electricity rates low. The tricky part right now is how to deliver that power.
Yup, we split up AT&T so they wouldnt be the monopoly, so they could spend the next 10 years buying up phone companies so they could be the local provider again. That whole shake down cracks me up.




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post #19 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-19-2006, 09:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kruz
The initial effects of deregulation can appear to be bad, however the long-term effects are always good for the consumer. You might have said the same thing about the telecom industry 10 years ago...it was too big, the parent companies owned everything, etc. Now look at what happened? Competition is fierce, new more efficient technologies come online. Do you remember what is costs to place a long distance call 10 years ago? Now its essentially free when it used to cost several dollars a minute.

Power is a commodity...more communities, like mine, are offering alternatives to keep electricity rates low. The tricky part right now is how to deliver that power.

also, remember that with the phone industry, the communication industry has changed WILDLY since the breakup. Technology like cell phones, dial tone over broadband, fiber to the house, etc. These were all things that were not available when the monopoly broke up. If we still ONLY had a pair of copper wires into the house for phones. Instead of a satellite dish on the roof, a pair of copper wires, and a coaxial connection, all of which can provide streaming communications data. When was the last time I could receive my power from the power company via a satellite...

I think its comparing apples to oranges. Nobody in the electric community (nor the gas community for that matter) is going to build a new infrastructure, they all will continue to use comed's system, so the consumer either pays the inflated prices to the utility company or pays the same price to a reseller who bought it at a discount and added there fee... AKA enron...

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post #20 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-19-2006, 09:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kruz
The initial effects of deregulation can appear to be bad, howeve the long-term effects are always good for the consumer. You might have said the same thing about the telecom industry 10 years ago...it was too big, the parent companies owned everything, etc. Now look at what happened? Competetion is fierce, new more effficient technologies come online. Do you remember what is costs to place a long distance call 10 years ago? Now its essentially free when it used to cost several dollars a minute.

Power is a commodity...more communities, like mine, are offering alternatives to keep electricity rates low. The tricky part right now is how to deliver that power.
Hmm, that's why the trend is for the banks and telecomm sector to slowly go back into the hands of the mega-few. Check out Chase, Citi, SBC etc.

Deregulation provides the avenue to make a lot of venture capitalists a lot of money by getting everyone to buy into the 'idea' that every little entity will be the next AT&T when they IPO the 'startups' or try to 'boost' the stock price of the parents. (telecomm bubble ring a bell?). The fun accounting is when each 'kid' starts transfering funds around between parents and indirectly to siblings via the parent in 'deals' and everyone is now playing a game of 3 car monty when it comes to the financial health of anything (Enron, Duke, Reliant, Worldcomm, etc) ...then the 'company focus' is more about making the stock price look better (higher profit margin per commodity) which may or may not do anything to the price ( in most cases, they go up ).

The suckers, er I mean public get left holding the bag one way or the other either when the price jumps or they stop the accounting merry-go-round and the company goes into chapter 7 or 11 and folds completely or gets 'salvaged' by one of the larger entities that are slowly gobbling up the sector.

The only saving grace the public does have is carefully controlled regulation. Not so much as to stifle the industry and make it not worth being in it, but not so loose that it's a dog eat dog world in a sector that provides VITAL NEEDED commodities for society. Some pricing controls are a good thing for the public as a whole.

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post #21 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-19-2006, 09:51 AM
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Yup, we split up AT&T so they wouldnt be the monopoly, so they could spend the next 10 years buying up phone companies so they could be the local provider again. That whole shake down cracks me up.
+1 you see it too

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post #22 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-19-2006, 10:01 AM
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Chris...you never know...they may just figure out a way to deliver power wirelessly. Folks said the same thing about phones before wireless technology was developed.

As far as the recent bank mega-mergers, its a product of an industry cycle that has little life left in it.

You guys crack me up...all the big bad corporations are out to beat up the consumer.

Big goverment and more regulation will save you all....yeh right.
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post #23 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-19-2006, 10:02 AM
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Quote:
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+1 you see it too
I work in it. I work for one of the bigger fish eating up the smaller fish.




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post #24 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-19-2006, 10:05 AM
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Although I think the apples to oranges comment is valid for the time being. If you want to run comparisons, it would be better to look at the natural gas industry. there are multiple different offerings, you can buy from but it is I still piped into your home via Nicor's pipes. I know my wife is always watching these and renegotiating better deals every year for natural gas through different vendors for our house.




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post #25 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-19-2006, 10:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kruz
Chris...you never know...they may just figure out a way to deliver power wirelessly. Folks said the same thing about phones before wireless technology was developed.

As far as the recent bank mega-mergers, its a product of an industry cycle that has little life left in it.

You guys crack me up...all the big bad corporations are out to beat up the consumer.

Big goverment and more regulation will save you all....yeh right.
The big nut to crack w/ power wirelessly is how not to cook things between point A and point B..line of sight and all that other fun stuff...not to mention the amount of power needed to send X amount downstream.

Corporations make money, that's their sole purpose. Path of least resistance is chosen more times than not.

To squeeze another $0.25 per commodity unit do you think they'll 'invest' millions into finding ways to lower their 'costs' or just tack on another $0.25 per commodity unit and pass it along to you?

Everyone Exaggerates

We're being taken for a ride... agaaaaaaain.....


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post #26 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-19-2006, 10:24 AM
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Tony...Im comparing apples to apples with power. Ive already seen firsthand what communities can do to not rely soley on Comed for their power. Nat gas is another example, although the delivery method has not changed.

Arch, if that's the incremental cost of business then yes, they should pass it on to the customer.

I believe we live in a free market society...I dont want my government "deciding" what my electric rates are. Sure...I'll welcome their input and appreciate their authority if it is required, but let Comed and all the other utility providers duke it out.

Im done with this thread....its heading down the political path.
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post #27 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-19-2006, 10:32 AM
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i get on my exercycle at night and generate power, then I sell it back to comed. they HAVE to buy it. I'm rich!

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post #28 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-19-2006, 11:14 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kruz
Tony...Im comparing apples to apples with power. Ive already seen firsthand what communities can do to not rely soley on Comed for their power. Nat gas is another example, although the delivery method has not changed.
Arch, if that's the incremental cost of business then yes, they should pass it on to the customer.
I believe we live in a free market society...I dont want my government "deciding" what my electric rates are. Sure...I'll welcome their input and appreciate their authority if it is required, but let Comed and all the other utility providers duke it out.
Im done with this thread....its heading down the political path.
There are plenty of problems with letting companies 'duke it out' when it's for a 'commodity' that is 'needed' to survive and be a productive member of society.

Do you want your free market company to be able to decide if an area should even get power or not (Can they even make a profit serving the area)? Do you want your free market company deciding that your area costs more to maintain, and therefore your area segment will cost 17 times more than an area just 1 mile away? Do you want your free market company to have the ability to change their billing policy to only give you 5 days to pay your bill that just experienced a 5 times increase in the dead of winter, and they can cut you off at 5PM if no payment is received and require a $3,500 deposit to reconnect you?

You see, some 'regulations' are not all bad.

Everyone Exaggerates

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post #29 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-19-2006, 01:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kruz

Im done with this thread....its heading down the political path.
I agree, arch is trying to turn it into a political discussion. I'm done as well.




HDTony.... Damn glad to meet you!

Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.

- Ronald Reagan

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post #30 of 33 (permalink) Old 09-19-2006, 01:10 PM
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Oh darn, we start to get into the details behind the scenes that are at play in the 'marketplace' and people start to get the heebie jeebies. If you think politics and economics are divorced from each other then go ahead and keep wearing the rose colored glasses. Ken asked questions about the rate increase and that's where I've been channeling it and keeping it on target with some back story about regulation/deregulation and how it's impacted other 'social commodity' sectors as well.

Everyone Exaggerates

We're being taken for a ride... agaaaaaaain.....


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