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post #1 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-16-2009, 01:29 PM Thread Starter
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The market - more discussion...

We've talked about this a lot lately. I still stand by this statement I made in January:

Quote:
Originally Posted by pcohenchicago View Post
The decline. We will start seeing a steady up tick in the market by 2nd quarter. By the end of the 3rd quarter or early 4th quarter we will see consistent upswings in employment, housing, and the general market. By the beginning of 2010 you will hear words of "the recession is pulling out..."
And further here more recently:

Quote:
Originally Posted by pcohenchicago View Post
We will have some blips, like today. Everyone is on edge and the "doom and gloom" patrol is out in force. Be patient - guard your cash, but don't hoard it. Go out to eat a little less, maybe step the department stores down a level from what you are used to when buying clothes and what-not. Maybe see one less movie a month with the family. order water with your meals when you dine out. Get some no-name brand things while grocery shopping. These are common every-day things you can do without dramatically changing your lifestyle.

Things WILL get better. Complaining about who has the right plan isn't going to make you feel any better. No matter who is in the White House, whatever plan that is issued is going to raise a fit for some people. From what I know, and I study this stuff relentlessly, we will have some ups and downs, but they will get better sooner than later.

Here is my prediction...

Q2, up ticks in the market will be common. People will begin feeling some of the benefit of the stimulus plan. Tax returns will occur. Money will begin creeping back into the community and businesses. By the end of June, people will feel much better overall. Mortgage issues will be stabilized, if not IMPROVING by then. Unemployment will start seeing a noticeable improvement - people will be going back to work. Home values will have begun their improvements. Retail sales will have begun their improvement.

Q3 will see greater market increases with very little negative. Layoffs will not be as prevalent, people will be looking to hire back some of the folks they let go. Companies that did well during this time with market share increases will begin reaping some benefits of their effort. You will begin hearing less doom and gloom and really start seeing overall sentiments improving. The American dollar will be in much better shape by the end of September.

Q4 holiday sales will be far better than in 2008. You will hear a lot of talk about the recession coming out strong. Unemployment will be at its' lowest level compared to the previous 18-20 months. All stimulus benefits happening in the first round will be fully realized. And, most of all, another successful track and riding season will come to an end!!

You are seeing these trends a little bit already. keep an eye on the tine of the news as we go through the next four months. you will see what I mean...
People are beginning to get some money from tax returns, now. You can already see SOME evidence of some of the stimulus money being spent. States have been receiving it bit-by-bit. The positive energy from this as well as the Administration's about-face on doom and gloom to a more "rosy" picture is beginning to occur.

We are already beginning to see the market go up little by little, but you shouldn't necessarily count your chickens before they hatch just yet. Like I said, hold out a little - wait until April. A few days of market up-swing does not make a "trend" but you ARE seeing some of the improvements occurring.

Some of the good news coming out of CitiBank is encouraging as well some "brighter" news from other companies.

March will see a decrease in job loss over recent periods. We have bottomed out there pending a major catastrophe. Beyond stock market up-ticks, some areas will begin to see increased business as people begin to losen their grip on their money. Also, spring is upon us. Generally that brings more positive spirits and outlooks in people. It plays into the big pool.

Another bonus now kicking in is the stimulus plans other countries have been putting into place. China is a big one. They have a LOT of cash. Believe it or not, China is one of the biggest reasons the entire system has not collapsed to date. Not only because of their financing power, but because of their cash infusions into various areas vital to their economy, which benefits us greatly.

I am feeling better about the overall economy - not just the market. While I don't agree with everything this Administration is doing (I voted democratic) I think there is a lot to be said about their plan that is going to help us through this. If done correctly, the investments made will return three-fold in the up swing.

Market share and cash position are ruling the roost. Those companies that will survive through the next two months will become extremely powerful by this time next year.

Mark my words...

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post #2 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-16-2009, 01:43 PM
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50% of our workforce has been laid off, and now we are scratching our heads wondering if we should go into 4 day work weeks or waste more money laying off trained men. Prices in our industry have been consistently falling (flat rolled steel) and have NOT gone back up, which in turn means the bottom isn't here. I won't know where the bottom is until it is gone, and as of right now we're still sliding down into it.

March, April and May bookings are 50% of what they've been compared to the last 3 years. Burlington Northern Sante Fe has 128,000 idle rail cars and about 700 idle locomotives. What goes on these trains? Imports, nobody is buying and there is nothing to transport out of LA, hence no need to build new cars or even repair them.

Although, the other side of our customer based industry of industrial applications such as farm equipment is steady and has been increasing due to our competition unable to keep up with such an economy, but everyone has to eat, so that's not that big of a deal.

Let's just fucking ride and quit worrying!
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post #3 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-16-2009, 01:48 PM
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Although I somewhat agree that a glint of the light at the end of the tunnel seems to be showing itself, we are a LONG ways off. At least as far as housing and residential, commercial and industrial construction.

3000 operators in the 150 hall. Thus far, most of the stimulus money is being spend on resurfacing jobs and other retrofit/correctional projects...hardly the resounding boost to the economy; so far at least.

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post #4 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-16-2009, 01:55 PM Thread Starter
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Some industries will lag behind others. STeel, for example, is at the bottom of the food chain in many respects. Step 1, get loan. Step two get a project started where people will invest. Step three plan it. blah blah blah... Buy raw materials...

The industries that will see positives soonest will be retail. Once you see that, the rest will follow. You are beginning to see glimers of spending - I watch those numbers religiously. Consumer confidence numbers fluctuate daily, it seems, but are beginning to trend upwards.

Again, Q2 you will really start to see evidence of this playing out.

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post #5 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-16-2009, 02:01 PM
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Mort, Ive been starting to see an upswing in my companies business(aluminum die castings), the weaker companies that could not weather the storm have closed for the most part, even we consolidated somewhat and closed our mexico facility. we are luck that we werent heavily vested in automotive, they slowed us down but luckily not enough to kill us instantly like a lot of others

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post #6 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-16-2009, 02:04 PM
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My company has started to see quite a few RFQs coming from various companies globally along with some chat starting to surface again regarding projects that were postponed indefinitely when everything crashed.

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post #7 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-16-2009, 02:09 PM
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Support your dealers!!!

That's about all I have to contribute. I hope things get better for everyone. There are some signs of improvement though.

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post #8 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-16-2009, 02:14 PM
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Support your dealers!!!

That's about all I have to contribute. I hope things get better for everyone. There are some signs of improvement though.
How are the dealers doing? Mine delivers to my house
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post #9 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-16-2009, 02:16 PM
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Quote:
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My company has started to see quite a few RFQs coming from various companies globally along with some chat starting to surface again regarding projects that were postponed indefinitely when everything crashed.
all of the RFQs go thru me, (were pretty small) for tooling quotes. Ive been swamped lately, I got 4 dropped on my desk this morning, I like it... btw, 2 of the parts are from husky and honda

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post #10 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-16-2009, 02:20 PM
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One side of my business does industrial cylinder head and engine rebuilding. This seems to have improved a bit. We also do alot of work for new car dealers. Some are busy and others are not. Talking with dealers, the problem is not lack of buyers in the showrooms, but lack of lending.
What have these banks done with their bailout money? Seems that they are just sitting on it.
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post #11 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-16-2009, 02:21 PM
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On the east west mainline for Union Pacific, there are over 200 furlowed (laid off). My yard, there are 34 laid off. Possibly more to come. Railroads are storing their new locomotives due to warranty. When the units are not being used, the warranty freezes. Things are looking up a little. It still sucks, they haven't furlowed in our yard in 25 years.
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post #12 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-16-2009, 02:40 PM
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Still a doubter about the within the year time frame....but I am not saying that I am not buying whatever stocks I can afford right now....500 hundred here and 500 there goes a long way in penny stocks, hell some of them(even with good overall strength charts) are selling at 1/6th of their values 8-9 months ago.

"When in doubt, use full throttle. It may not improve your situation, but it will end the suspense."
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post #13 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-16-2009, 02:49 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
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Still a doubter about the within the year time frame....but I am not saying that I am not buying whatever stocks I can afford right now....500 hundred here and 500 there goes a long way in penny stocks, hell some of them(even with good overall strength charts) are selling at 1/6th of their values 8-9 months ago.
If you are just talking stock market, that recovery will happen before anything. That is the first sign of things to come. You are doing it right. Keep moving money in, slowly. Pick it up as things move further along.

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post #14 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-16-2009, 02:53 PM
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In your sector analysis, are you also showing the semiconductor sector already showing strength?

"When in doubt, use full throttle. It may not improve your situation, but it will end the suspense."
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post #15 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-16-2009, 03:02 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
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In your sector analysis, are you also showing the semiconductor sector already showing strength?
I haven't looked too deep into semiconductors. The PC market as a whole is going to be weak. I don't personally see a recovery there into Q4 that is substantive. I think we will see revenue growth in 2010, but it won't be much higher than 10% in the first half. However, this is one of the markets where the companies that can hold old will benefit when the boom comes. Many companies are not buying new equipment. Plain an simple, capital expenditures are very rare right now comparative to the previous 8 quarters before July 1, 2008.

I consider semiconductor a "raw material" in the development of the elctronics that need them. Until the manufacturers feel they can get financing to continue production, based on the demand of their product, they will sit on the stock pile they have now to satisfy their short term needs.

My opinion, of course. I use RNCOS for a lot of my market research. I seem to get the best, and most accurate, results from them.

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post #16 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-16-2009, 03:03 PM
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How are the dealers doing? Mine delivers to my house

Yeah that comes in handy for the wusses that can't ride.

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post #17 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-16-2009, 03:07 PM
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Yeah that comes in handy for the wusses that can't ride.
Don't talk about Paul like that, he's handicapped!
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Don't talk about Paul like that, he's handicapped!
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post #19 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-16-2009, 03:15 PM
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We'll see what happens to the industrial companies if this emissions legislation goes through.

We're also starting to see old jobs resurfacing, very slowly though. More inquiries as to where things stand and how quickly we could get going than actually getting going! Here's hopin'.

Tom

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post #20 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-16-2009, 03:24 PM
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Our firm just layed off 229 employees. Our firm eliminated 89 associate attorneys and 140 staff members. First time they have done this in the 140+ year history of the firm. No merit increases this year, but we might see merit bonuses. Legal work has really slowed down.

However, the firm has no debt and made a smart move in the last week of december and prepaid the rent on the chicago building and the two new york buildings. They also prepaid the bcbs heathcare premiums for this year (now I know why they raised our portion). They say we are in good shape, but it was a scary day on Thursday and Friday.

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post #21 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-16-2009, 03:26 PM
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My company has installed over 2 million in new machinery during the last 6 months. They laid off the temps, but all other jobs are safe.

And Boston is retrofitting their sewer system and we got the contract for all the drive chain they need. Equals over 60 miles of stainless steel chain. That one order is almost 25% of our yearly sales. I may be getting a raise after all.

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post #22 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-16-2009, 04:15 PM Thread Starter
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A good article on "where the money goes that is lost in teh stock market..."

http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retir...buildingwealth

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post #23 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-18-2009, 03:21 PM Thread Starter
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Now we are talking...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-to...-14680575.html

This should cause a BIG positive ripple throughout the world economy almost immediately. I have been waiting for this to happen. This is a no-lose proposition...

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post #24 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-18-2009, 03:33 PM
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I'm already up big on my original trade and another buyin or two since you were telling people to hold off. I'll probably take some profits soon and re-evaluate. This fed news was huge today

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post #25 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-18-2009, 03:36 PM
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Things are going to get better, but I have to say that I will have my business up and running in about 3 more weeks. If they don't I have to start over and life and that's just not an option for me.

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post #26 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-18-2009, 03:41 PM Thread Starter
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I'm already up big on my original trade and another buyin or two since you were telling people to hold off. I'll probably take some profits soon and re-evaluate. This fed news was huge today
I never said to hold off. I just cautioned against increasing your stake. I always advocated a steady market investment - cautiously. My concern is with ordinary average people who primarily invest through Money Market or 401k. I would still hold off on increasing your % input into those until we get through March.

For Day Traders, or people who are more active, the risk is part of what you do so now is the time. Buyers market continues...

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post #27 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-18-2009, 03:49 PM
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Quote:
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I never said to hold off. I just cautioned against increasing your stake. I always advocated a steady market investment - cautiously. My concern is with ordinary average people who primarily invest through Money Market or 401k. I would still hold off on increasing your % input into those until we get through March.

For Day Traders, or people who are more active, the risk is part of what you do so now is the time. Buyers market continues...

That's where you and I will disagree. I don't believe in sitting on my hands and trusting the market will go up long-term. Those days might even be over because people can't recover from 60% hits. Here's what I like to do, and of course I follow the market more closely than most. Put whatever you possible can in your contribution. invest half across a normal allocation according to age and risk tolerance, the other half in money market. While in months the market goes down take some fro MM and distribute into the normal allocation. When the market has big moves higher, take some off the table. I still believe upping your allocation should happen when you can financially and have little to do with what the market is doing, but if it's down more than 40% it's a no brainer not to wait.

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post #28 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-18-2009, 03:50 PM
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That's where you and I will disagree. I don't believe in sitting on my hands and trusting the market will go up long-term. Those days might even be over because people can't recover from 60% hits. Here's what I like to do, and of course I follow the market more closely than most. Put whatever you possible can in your contribution. invest half across a normal allocation according to age and risk tolerance, the other half in money market. While in months the market goes down take some fro MM and distribute into the normal allocation. When the market has big moves higher, take some off the table. I still believe upping your allocation should happen when you can financially and have little to do with what the market is doing, but if it's down more than 40% it's a no brainer not to wait.

btw...I'm pretty sure you did tell people you would hold off upping their allocations till June?


edit***
nope: I was wrong, you said March or april

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Originally Posted by pcohenchicago View Post
I would wait just a little while longer. Just my opinion. You should definitely be putting into your 401k right now. As far as INCREASING it, or maxing it out, I would wait until about March or April for that. This is MY opinion, but I look for market bottom to hit between now and then. Afterwords, barring any major event, we should be on a steady up-tick.

Brian (F.K.A. Crazy)

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Last edited by Meulen; 03-18-2009 at 03:55 PM.
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post #29 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-18-2009, 03:57 PM
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I feel like I should take advantage of how low things are right now. But is buying say 100 or 150 shares of something really a huge deal. I guess I am not sure about what volumes that actively trading really starts to show returns. Granted my 100-150 shares is based on he affordability of one specific stock I am looking at.

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post #30 of 109 (permalink) Old 03-18-2009, 03:58 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Meulen View Post
That's where you and I will disagree. I don't believe in sitting on my hands and trusting the market will go up long-term. Those days might even be over because people can't recover from 60% hits. Here's what I like to do, and of course I follow the market more closely than most. Put whatever you possible can in your contribution. invest half across a normal allocation according to age and risk tolerance, the other half in money market. While in months the market goes down take some fro MM and distribute into the normal allocation. When the market has big moves higher, take some off the table. I still believe upping your allocation should happen when you can financially and have little to do with what the market is doing, but if it's down more than 40% it's a no brainer not to wait.
Some of this is good advice, for sure. MOST people do not invest daily. They put a certain % of their pay into a 401k and let it rip. For those, like you apparently, who can afford the risk and pay more attention to daily market trends and can act accordingly, it's a slightly different story. The overall strategy, however, remains the same. Be steady right now, but don't go all in. Now is not the time for that. In MY opinion, of course.

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